Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 20.827524 24.400536 28.761556 34.599705 42.414253 52.839467 68.425242
2024-12-22 16.194823 20.129328 25.415993 33.377770 45.763435 65.787123 104.798374
2024-12-29 13.949445 18.001402 23.798864 33.275569 49.785894 81.140367 160.395944
2025-01-05 12.041750 15.902385 21.648147 31.557728 50.231563 90.268175 217.287790
2025-01-12 10.495558 14.071198 19.533528 29.304610 48.770182 94.503830 270.757622
2025-01-19 9.369103 12.718312 17.947173 27.595566 47.777088 99.374458 342.807385
2025-01-26 9.525883 13.334616 19.613891 32.171923 62.187191 161.238571 1223.508729
2025-02-02 9.225743 13.174002 19.921539 34.184040 71.789272 225.774181 6083.061644
2025-02-09 8.466063 12.172287 18.585842 32.411927 70.215094 239.138810 17351.497319
2025-02-16 8.174157 11.927497 18.601547 33.631056 78.299138 326.858049 NaN
2025-02-23 7.758716 11.429326 18.072421 33.471659 81.955612 401.795519 NaN
2025-03-02 7.353385 10.914275 17.450368 32.962247 84.220061 479.881218 NaN
2025-03-09 7.051183 10.581575 17.197469 33.461187 91.388637 681.037360 NaN
2025-03-16 6.618641 9.982613 16.347124 32.252530 90.994475 786.892370 NaN
2025-03-23 6.329034 9.620853 15.942502 32.157892 95.684461 1091.426270 NaN
2025-03-30 5.938170 9.046157 15.039428 30.524673 92.220536 1149.290369 NaN
2025-04-06 5.535877 8.429063 14.002747 28.379369 85.432005 1042.298397 NaN
2025-04-13 5.204763 7.928608 13.180760 26.749480 80.794357 1005.361701 NaN
2025-04-20 5.365681 8.353387 14.361591 31.108821 111.502531 6333.796258 NaN
2025-04-27 5.319465 8.380137 14.679740 33.020550 131.991910 150313.126949 NaN
2025-05-04 5.046765 7.950934 13.929010 31.337006 125.324046 147440.860950 NaN
2025-05-11 4.967049 7.894794 14.027684 32.495448 142.249312 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 4.815268 7.687207 13.755969 32.344047 148.574478 NaN NaN